Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 189.393594 225.179832 267.948797 323.444314 394.457562 483.545802 6.058155e+02
2025-09-21 147.401833 190.341210 247.599198 331.662532 455.743000 638.743335 9.427060e+02
2025-09-28 120.228386 164.259963 227.642035 329.484043 497.240641 779.537543 1.333956e+03
2025-10-05 108.832326 156.215822 229.235512 356.766552 590.288199 1039.634457 2.099303e+03
2025-10-12 99.342390 148.487124 228.648997 379.070144 681.874402 1342.993722 3.220282e+03
2025-10-19 90.949922 140.622445 225.641454 395.465881 767.834778 1684.122080 4.829135e+03
2025-10-26 83.180900 132.305288 219.885160 404.569464 841.722338 2044.918298 7.046869e+03
2025-11-02 75.969682 123.743070 211.910944 406.768130 900.522272 2408.483914 1.000460e+04
2025-11-09 68.697781 114.007389 199.949806 397.207571 925.962595 2691.395867 1.330684e+04
2025-11-16 62.544085 105.526684 189.072228 387.507607 947.818180 2985.159481 1.767697e+04
2025-11-23 57.198052 97.921629 178.807573 376.918027 963.565270 3275.593763 2.332370e+04
2025-11-30 55.970814 98.091578 184.740914 407.992074 1124.443074 4379.315016 4.488884e+04
2025-12-07 52.489236 93.538373 180.140350 411.691056 1201.088330 5213.430415 7.435949e+04
2025-12-14 50.004280 90.730487 179.041207 425.026756 1323.086614 6538.901954 1.470102e+05
2025-12-21 46.798949 86.055258 172.937858 422.556159 1383.525229 7602.487561 2.637585e+05
2025-12-28 46.149055 86.713875 179.540200 460.294195 1643.493090 10955.297291 1.033027e+06
2026-01-04 45.074891 86.308928 183.483970 491.278134 1902.270442 15411.624286 6.471874e+06
2026-01-11 43.648757 84.945400 184.781910 514.149333 2144.141837 21054.233267 1.349361e+08
2026-01-18 41.895302 82.638566 183.259404 526.884947 2344.859334 27587.940504 NaN
2026-01-25 39.919860 79.612254 179.367919 529.964964 2493.305772 34585.848481 NaN
2026-02-01 37.535668 75.401471 171.674564 516.586285 2524.257382 39413.421747 NaN
2026-02-08 35.353817 71.492335 164.358957 503.043741 2547.588794 44691.170445 NaN
2026-02-15 33.319849 67.774266 157.149757 488.295725 2553.913662 49976.179216 NaN